Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 13.156212 14.883816 16.894096 19.442853 22.643537 26.609670 3.203165e+01
2024-10-06 11.076707 13.154232 15.774330 19.429812 24.594070 31.982900 4.414741e+01
2024-10-13 9.522090 11.615466 14.378788 18.460679 24.675487 34.491529 5.312640e+01
2024-10-20 8.379886 10.408726 13.171844 17.421727 24.259581 35.926165 6.092605e+01
2024-10-27 7.541302 9.498648 12.230136 16.569179 23.875780 37.201152 6.916422e+01
2024-11-03 7.659752 9.912023 13.209305 18.801930 29.176046 51.192802 1.218839e+02
2024-11-10 7.446001 9.812963 13.394163 19.759050 32.457253 62.977109 1.936684e+02
2024-11-17 6.865520 9.112049 12.555011 18.789362 31.605788 64.126048 2.249778e+02
2024-11-24 6.528448 8.752287 12.223922 18.683205 32.569204 70.906648 3.155382e+02
2024-12-01 6.190133 8.363708 11.806095 18.350398 32.940408 76.234568 4.331648e+02
2024-12-08 5.935595 8.087188 11.548175 18.284974 33.930280 84.478171 6.866818e+02
2024-12-15 5.755777 7.915445 11.450414 18.518444 35.736074 97.559940 1.470261e+03
2024-12-22 5.481971 7.589732 11.083700 18.209640 36.208545 106.572275 3.484346e+03
2024-12-29 5.277019 7.363660 10.874573 18.206619 37.565952 122.106906 4.627360e+04
2025-01-05 4.968400 6.948474 10.294245 17.329116 36.146403 121.153819 5.044183e+06
2025-01-12 4.674475 6.544123 9.709494 16.386038 34.353046 116.830894 NaN
2025-01-19 4.424170 6.201934 9.219379 15.609970 32.943420 114.213252 NaN
2025-01-26 4.556927 6.507096 9.936920 17.638270 41.123127 197.884112 NaN
2025-02-02 4.528639 6.534615 10.135153 18.503721 45.967161 286.031558 NaN
2025-02-09 4.309870 6.220088 9.649988 17.626890 43.840302 274.220717 NaN
2025-02-16 4.188914 6.071942 9.482071 17.530751 44.852113 319.961041 NaN
2025-02-23 4.054135 5.893559 9.243696 17.229159 44.941168 353.258568 NaN
2025-03-02 3.952309 5.769131 9.104993 17.169837 46.074683 422.703501 NaN